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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-02T03:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44392/-1
CME Note: CME/outflow seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and (most clearly) in STEREO A COR2 following and overlapping with CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. (Its start in LASCO might be somewhat different). This is the most distinct outflow front among the multiple follow ups to CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. It is especially distinct in STEREO A COR2, as it seems to have a higher latitude than the CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Its source is not clear but could be the long-duration M5.2 flare from AR 4366 (N13E35) peaking at 2026-02-02T02:51Z. No clear arrival signature for this CME has been seen in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-05T17:55Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 68.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-02-02T21:02Z
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